Why the U.S. administration must be understood as an independent destabilizing factor
2026 does not begin with the explosion of a world war.
It begins with nervousness, volatility, and strategic ambiguity.
And that is precisely where the danger lies.
Wars rarely start because all actors consciously want them.
They emerge where systems are under pressure, decision windows shrink, and key players begin to miscalculate risk.
What defines the current situation is not a clear front line, nor a single aggressive act.
It is the erosion of predictability.
A systemic problem, not a single crisis
The central risk factor in early 2026 is not Russia alone.
It is not Iran.
It is not China.
It is the United States government itself as a destabilizing variable.
Not because the U.S. has become weak, but because it has become structurally unreliable.
Strategic commitments appear situational.
Signals shift with domestic pressure, media cycles, and personal impulses.
Red lines exist on paper, but their enforcement is n…
